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Lewart vs Chełmianka Chełm — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
1 – 4
Chełmianka Chełm
Chełmianka Chełm
9/7/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart29%
×Draw24%
Chełmianka Chełm47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.28
Chełmianka Chełm
1.71

Chełmianka Chełm creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Chełmianka Chełm
1.73

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Chełmianka Chełm
1.42

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Chełmianka Chełm+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Chełmianka Chełm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
53%
Lewart or Chełmianka Chełm
76%
Draw or Chełmianka Chełm
71%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
12%
Chełmianka Chełm wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
72%
Lewart 2+ goals
37%
Lewart 3+ goals
14%
Chełmianka Chełm 1+ goals
82%
Chełmianka Chełm 2+ goals
51%
Chełmianka Chełm 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
38%
Chełmianka Chełm (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Chełmianka Chełm away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Chełmianka Chełm defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Chełmianka Chełm attack 1.73 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lewart scores more
29%
level
24%
Chełmianka Chełm scores more
47%

Chełmianka Chełm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chełmianka Chełm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewart vs Chełmianka Chełm

Chełmianka Chełm beat Lewart 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.