Lewart 2–3 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Lewart

FT

2 – 3

Avia Świdnik

5/8/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart24%

×Draw23%

Avia Świdnik53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LewartExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.79

Lewart

1.13

Avia Świdnik

1.79

Avia Świdnik creates 58% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

1.14

creates per match

1.89

1.70

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Lewart

1.14

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Lewart

1.70

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lewart or draw

47%

Lewart or Avia Świdnik

77%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

76%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+

9%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals

68%

Lewart 2+ goals

31%

Lewart 3+ goals

11%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

83%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

53%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)

31%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lewart scores more

24%

level

23%

Avia Świdnik scores more

53%

Avia Świdnik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff