Levski Sofia 3–3 Slavia Sofia: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Slavia Sofia

Aldair 90+7'

H. Fadiga 90+4'

Everton Bala 2'

J. Semedo Varela 84'

R. Raychev 14'

E. Martinov 7'

3/9/2025

First League · Round 24Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Levski Sofia59%

×Draw23%

Slavia Sofia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Sofia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.87

Levski Sofia

1.77

Slavia Sofia

0.87

Levski Sofia creates 103% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

2.05

creates per match

1.13

0.61

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Levski Sofia

2.05

Slavia Sofia

1.13

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.61

Slavia Sofia

1.49

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.07on par

Slavia Sofia-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Slavia Sofia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

82%

Levski Sofia or Slavia Sofia

77%

Draw or Slavia Sofia

41%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

33%

Slavia Sofia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

83%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

53%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

26%

Slavia Sofia 1+ goals

58%

Slavia Sofia 2+ goals

22%

Slavia Sofia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

76%

Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.61 · 26 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.49 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 2.05 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slavia Sofia attack 1.13 + Levski Sofia defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

59%

level

23%

Slavia Sofia scores more

18%

Levski Sofia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

7'

14'

17'

33'

36'

38'

V. Jelenković← I. Minchev

41'

Ertan Tombak

46'

C. Ohene← G. Trdin

46'

K. Fabien← P. Myslovič

50'

52'

56'

61'

62'

I. Stefanov← K. van der Kaap

63'

Denislav Aleksandrov

68'

Q. Seedorf← R. Raychev

69'

M. Dosso← K. Stoyanov

69'

E. Stoev← D. Aleksandrov

77'

77'

80'

83'

84'

90+5'

I. Naydenov← E. Stoev

90+4'

H. Fadiga

90+7'

Aldair

Levski4-2-3-1

Slavia4-2-3-1

10

Nikolov

7

▼

Aleksandr

73

▼

Minchev

14

⚽

▼

Raychev

71

▼

Stoyanov

27

⚽

Martinov

20

⚽

37

6

3

12

44

3

4

5

▼

Kaap

21

⚽

Aldair

18

▼

Trdin

23

▼

Myslovič

17

⚽

Bala

11

Jemili

88

▼

Petkov

12

▼

Sangaré

Manager: Julio Velázquez

46'▲C. Ohene←▼G. Trdin

46'▲K. Fabien←▼P. Myslovič

62'▲I. Stefanov←▼K. van der Kaap

77'▲H. Fadiga←▼M. Petkov

83'▲A. Kolev←▼M. Sangaré

Levski Sofia substitutes

8Ohene95Fabien14Stefanov97Fadiga9Kolev71Kamdem92Vutsov41Lyubenov

Manager: Z. Zagorčić

38'▲V. Jelenković←▼I. Minchev

68'▲Q. Seedorf←▼R. Raychev

69'▲M. Dosso←▼K. Stoyanov

69'▲E. Stoev←▼D. Aleksandrov

90+5'▲I. Naydenov←▼E. Stoev

Slavia Sofia substitutes

5Jelenković22Seedorf11Dosso77Stoev66Naydenov4Genev8Ramadan21Andonov55Kostov