Levski Sofia 3–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

12/2/2023

First League · Round 19Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 136+ matches

Levski Sofia49%

×Draw26%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.95

Levski Sofia

1.48

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.95

Levski Sofia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 136 away

1.66

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Levski Sofia

1.66

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.76

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

76%

Levski Sofia or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

74%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

51%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

77%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

43%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

19%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

61%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

25%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

67%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 137 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.48

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

49%

level

26%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

24%

Levski Sofia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff