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Levski Sofia vs Kaisar — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
CANC
14:00
Kaisar
Kaisar
2/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Levski Sofia75%
×Draw16%
Kaisar9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia
2.50
Kaisar
0.75

Levski Sofia creates 233% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 3 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia
2.33
Kaisar
0.67

allows per match

Levski Sofia
0.83
Kaisar
2.67

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par
Kaisar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Kaisar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw
91%
Levski Sofia or Kaisar
84%
Draw or Kaisar
25%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+
53%
Kaisar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals
92%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
71%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
45%
Kaisar 1+ goals
53%
Kaisar 2+ goals
17%
Kaisar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
89%
Kaisar (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Kaisar away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 2.33 + Kaisar defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Kaisar attack 0.67 + Levski Sofia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Levski Sofia scores more
75%
level
16%
Kaisar scores more
9%

Levski Sofia at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Levski Sofia host Kaisar

February 6, 2024: Levski Sofia take on Kaisar in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Levski Sofia host Kaisar at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.