Levski Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali

Levski Sofia

Preview

15:00

Arda Kardzhali

4/10/2027

First League · Round 25Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov

Big match

50%

Levski Sofia

model favours

50%27%23%

Levski Sofia are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

44%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Levski Sofia50%

×Draw27%

Arda Kardzhali23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski SofiaExpected goals in this matchArda Kardzhali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.88

Levski Sofia

1.42

Arda Kardzhali

0.88

Levski Sofia creates 61% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 120 away

1.66

creates per match

0.99

0.76

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Levski Sofia

1.66

Arda Kardzhali

0.99

allows per match

Levski Sofia

0.76

Arda Kardzhali

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia ↓

Arda Kardzhali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Levski Sofia or draw

77%

Levski Sofia or Arda Kardzhali

73%

Draw or Arda Kardzhali

50%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia wins by 2+

24%

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia 1+ goals

76%

Levski Sofia 2+ goals

41%

Levski Sofia 3+ goals

17%

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

59%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

22%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia (draw refunded)

68%

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 136 matches

Arda Kardzhali away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia attack 1.66 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Arda Kardzhali attack 0.99 + Levski Sofia defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Levski Sofia scores more

50%

level

27%

Arda Kardzhali scores more

23%

Levski Sofia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Levski Sofia score first in only 33% of matches
Levski Sofia have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Both teams score in only 28% of Levski Sofia’s matches
67% of Levski Sofia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Levski Sofia win just 51% against the top half (vs 88% against the bottom)
36% of Levski Sofia’s goals come after the 75th minute