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Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia — First League 2018

Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia
11/2/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Arena Arda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Arda Kardzhali35%
×Draw27%
Levski Sofia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arda Kardzhali
1.19
Levski Sofia
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 138 away

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.45
Levski Sofia
1.41

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali
1.11
Levski Sofia
0.93

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par
Levski Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Levski Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw
62%
Arda Kardzhali or Levski Sofia
73%
Draw or Levski Sofia
65%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+
14%
Levski Sofia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals
70%
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals
33%
Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals
12%
Levski Sofia 1+ goals
72%
Levski Sofia 2+ goals
36%
Levski Sofia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)
48%
Levski Sofia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches

Levski Sofia away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.93 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.45 + Levski Sofia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Levski Sofia attack 1.41 + Arda Kardzhali defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more
35%
level
27%
Levski Sofia scores more
38%

Levski Sofia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Arda Kardzhali 0–3 Levski Sofia

Levski Sofia beat Arda Kardzhali 3-0 in First League on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Arena Arda in Kardzhali.