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Levski Sofia II vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
5/18/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II53%
×Draw23%
Septemvri Sofia II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia II
1.85
Septemvri Sofia II
1.16

Levski Sofia II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 88 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia II
1.86
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Levski Sofia II
1.13
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw
76%
Levski Sofia II or Septemvri Sofia II
77%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
47%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
30%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
84%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
55%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
28%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
69%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
32%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
69%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more
53%
level
23%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
24%

Levski Sofia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Sofia II 1–1 Septemvri Sofia II

Levski Sofia II and Septemvri Sofia II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.