Levski Sofia II 1–0 Septemvri Simitli

Levski Sofia II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Septemvri Simitli

9/28/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 11Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II52%

×Draw24%

Septemvri Simitli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.04

Levski Sofia II

1.67

Septemvri Simitli

1.04

Levski Sofia II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 94 away

1.86

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Levski Sofia II

1.86

Septemvri Simitli

0.96

allows per match

Levski Sofia II

1.13

Septemvri Simitli

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw

76%

Levski Sofia II or Septemvri Simitli

76%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

48%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

28%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

81%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

50%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

23%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

65%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

28%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

69%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more

52%

level

24%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

24%

Levski Sofia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff