Levski Sofia II 0–1 Pirin Razlog: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pirin Razlog

9/26/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 10Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II53%

×Draw24%

Pirin Razlog23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchPirin Razlog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.05

Levski Sofia II

1.72

Pirin Razlog

1.05

Levski Sofia II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 131 away

1.86

creates per match

0.98

1.13

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Levski Sofia II

1.86

Pirin Razlog

0.98

allows per match

Levski Sofia II

1.13

Pirin Razlog

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Pirin Razlog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw

77%

Levski Sofia II or Pirin Razlog

76%

Draw or Pirin Razlog

47%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

29%

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

82%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

51%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

25%

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

65%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

28%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

70%

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more

53%

level

24%

Pirin Razlog scores more

23%

Levski Sofia II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff