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Levski Sofia II vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
5/28/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 31Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Levski Sofia II62%
×Draw21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia II
1.96
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.88

Levski Sofia II creates 123% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia II
1.86
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Levski Sofia II
1.13
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw
84%
Levski Sofia II or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
79%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
38%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
38%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
86%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
58%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
31%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
59%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
22%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
79%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.96

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more
62%
level
21%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
16%

Levski Sofia II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Sofia II 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Levski Sofia II beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.