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Levski Sofia II vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Sofia II
Levski Sofia II
FT
3 – 2
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
4/22/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 6Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Sofia II61%
×Draw21%
Levski Rakovski18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Sofia II
2.02
Levski Rakovski
1.00

Levski Sofia II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 16 away

creates per match

Levski Sofia II
1.86
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Levski Sofia II
1.13
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw
82%
Levski Sofia II or Levski Rakovski
79%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
39%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+
37%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals
87%
Levski Sofia II 2+ goals
60%
Levski Sofia II 3+ goals
33%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
63%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)
77%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.02

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more
61%
level
21%
Levski Rakovski scores more
18%

Levski Sofia II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Sofia II 3–2 Levski Rakovski

Levski Sofia II beat Levski Rakovski 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.