Levski Sofia II 1–1 Hebar II: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hebar II

3/10/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 24Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Levski Sofia II59%

×Draw23%

Hebar II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchHebar II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.84

Levski Sofia II

1.74

Hebar II

0.84

Levski Sofia II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 38 away

1.86

creates per match

0.55

1.13

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Levski Sofia II

1.86

Hebar II

0.55

allows per match

Levski Sofia II

1.13

Hebar II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Hebar II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Hebar II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw

82%

Levski Sofia II or Hebar II

77%

Draw or Hebar II

41%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

33%

Hebar II wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

82%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

52%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

25%

Hebar II 1+ goals

57%

Hebar II 2+ goals

21%

Hebar II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

77%

Hebar II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Hebar II away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Hebar II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hebar II attack 0.55 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more

59%

level

23%

Hebar II scores more

18%

Levski Sofia II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Sofia II vs Hebar II

Levski Sofia II and Hebar II drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte in Sofia.

Levski Sofia II vs Hebar II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Levski Sofia II vs Hebar II