Levski Sofia II 6–1 Granit Vladaya: Result & Stats

Levski Sofia II

FT

6 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Granit Vladaya

10/23/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Georgi Asparuhov pomoshtno igrishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Levski Sofia II67%

×Draw19%

Granit Vladaya14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski Sofia IIExpected goals in this matchGranit Vladaya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.93

Levski Sofia II

2.25

Granit Vladaya

0.93

Levski Sofia II creates 142% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

1.86

creates per match

0.74

1.13

allows per match

2.63

creates per match

Levski Sofia II

1.86

Granit Vladaya

0.74

allows per match

Levski Sofia II

1.13

Granit Vladaya

2.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Sofia II+0.00on par

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Sofia II ↓

Granit Vladaya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Levski Sofia II or draw

86%

Levski Sofia II or Granit Vladaya

81%

Draw or Granit Vladaya

33%

Winning margin

Levski Sofia II wins by 2+

44%

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Levski Sofia II 1+ goals

89%

Levski Sofia II 2+ goals

65%

Levski Sofia II 3+ goals

39%

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

61%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

24%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Levski Sofia II (draw refunded)

82%

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Sofia II at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.13 · 70 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Sofia II attack 1.86 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.25

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Levski Sofia II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Levski Sofia II scores more

67%

level

19%

Granit Vladaya scores more

14%

Levski Sofia II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Levski Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff