Levski Rakovski 1–1 Slivnishki geroy

Levski Rakovski

FT

1 – 1

Slivnishki geroy

11/12/2022

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 15Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski35%

×Draw27%

Slivnishki geroy38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski RakovskiExpected goals in this matchSlivnishki geroy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.29

Levski Rakovski

1.23

Slivnishki geroy

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 130 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

1.56

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Levski Rakovski

1.00

Slivnishki geroy

1.02

allows per match

Levski Rakovski

1.56

Slivnishki geroy

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Slivnishki geroy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw

62%

Levski Rakovski or Slivnishki geroy

73%

Draw or Slivnishki geroy

65%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+

15%

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals

71%

Levski Rakovski 2+ goals

35%

Levski Rakovski 3+ goals

13%

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

72%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

37%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)

48%

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more

35%

level

27%

Slivnishki geroy scores more

38%

Slivnishki geroy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff