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Levski Rakovski vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
0 – 1
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
10/22/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 12Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski38%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Sofia II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.42
Septemvri Sofia II
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 88 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
64%
Levski Rakovski or Septemvri Sofia II
75%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
62%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
18%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
76%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
41%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
17%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
75%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
40%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
51%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
38%
level
25%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
36%

Levski Rakovski at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Rakovski vs Septemvri Sofia II

Septemvri Sofia II beat Levski Rakovski 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Vivacom Arena - Georgi Asparuhov in Sofia.