Levski Rakovski 0–2 Oborishte: Result & Stats

Levski Rakovski

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Oborishte

3/18/2023

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 1Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski33%

×Draw25%

Oborishte42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski RakovskiExpected goals in this matchOborishte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.48

Levski Rakovski

1.28

Oborishte

1.48

Oborishte creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 132 away

1.00

creates per match

1.39

1.56

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Levski Rakovski

1.00

Oborishte

1.39

allows per match

Levski Rakovski

1.56

Oborishte

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Oborishte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw

58%

Levski Rakovski or Oborishte

75%

Draw or Oborishte

67%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+

14%

Oborishte wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals

72%

Levski Rakovski 2+ goals

37%

Levski Rakovski 3+ goals

14%

Oborishte 1+ goals

77%

Oborishte 2+ goals

43%

Oborishte 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)

44%

Oborishte (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more

33%

level

25%

Oborishte scores more

42%

Oborishte at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Oborishte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff