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Levski Lom vs Strumska Slava — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Strumska Slava
Strumska Slava
3/9/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom37%
×Draw30%
Strumska Slava33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
1.11
Strumska Slava
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 113 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
Strumska Slava
0.81

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
Strumska Slava
1.46

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Strumska Slava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Strumska Slava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
67%
Levski Lom or Strumska Slava
70%
Draw or Strumska Slava
63%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
15%
Strumska Slava wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
67%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
30%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
10%
Strumska Slava 1+ goals
64%
Strumska Slava 2+ goals
27%
Strumska Slava 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
53%
Strumska Slava (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Strumska Slava away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.46 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Strumska Slava defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Strumska Slava attack 0.81 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Levski Lom scores more
37%
level
30%
Strumska Slava scores more
33%

Levski Lom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Strumska Slava

Levski Lom and Strumska Slava drew 1-1 in Second League on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.