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Levski Lom vs OFK Levski — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
2 – 0
OFK Levski
OFK Levski
10/18/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 11Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom82%
×Draw12%
OFK Levski5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.68
OFK Levski
0.54

Levski Lom creates 396% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 100 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
OFK Levski
0.90

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
OFK Levski
2.30

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
OFK Levski+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

OFK Levski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
95%
Levski Lom or OFK Levski
88%
Draw or OFK Levski
18%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
61%
OFK Levski wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
93%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
74%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
49%
OFK Levski 1+ goals
42%
OFK Levski 2+ goals
10%
OFK Levski 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
94%
OFK Levski (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

OFK Levski away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.30 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + OFK Levski defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.68

OFK Levski attack 0.90 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Levski Lom scores more
82%
level
12%
OFK Levski scores more
5%

Levski Lom at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levski Lom 2 – 0 OFK Levski

Levski Lom beat OFK Levski 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.