Levski Lom 2–0 Neftochimic Burgas: Result & Stats

Levski Lom

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Neftochimic Burgas

8/18/2021

Second League · Round 6Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom51%

×Draw25%

Neftochimic Burgas24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski LomExpected goals in this matchNeftochimic Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.05

Levski Lom

1.65

Neftochimic Burgas

1.05

Levski Lom creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

0.77

creates per match

0.88

1.23

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Levski Lom

0.77

Neftochimic Burgas

0.88

allows per match

Levski Lom

1.23

Neftochimic Burgas

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par

Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw

76%

Levski Lom or Neftochimic Burgas

75%

Draw or Neftochimic Burgas

49%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+

27%

Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals

81%

Levski Lom 2+ goals

49%

Levski Lom 3+ goals

23%

Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals

65%

Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals

28%

Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)

68%

Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.53 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.65

Neftochimic Burgas attack 0.88 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Levski Lom scores more

51%

level

25%

Neftochimic Burgas scores more

24%

Levski Lom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff