Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Levski Lom vs Lokomotiv Mezdra — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
2 – 0
Lokomotiv Mezdra
Lokomotiv Mezdra
11/4/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 2Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom72%
×Draw17%
Lokomotiv Mezdra11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.34
Lokomotiv Mezdra
0.77

Levski Lom creates 204% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 106 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.36

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Lokomotiv Mezdra
1.62

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Mezdra+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Lokomotiv Mezdra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
89%
Levski Lom or Lokomotiv Mezdra
83%
Draw or Lokomotiv Mezdra
28%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
49%
Lokomotiv Mezdra wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
90%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
67%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
41%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 1+ goals
54%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 2+ goals
18%
Lokomotiv Mezdra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
87%
Lokomotiv Mezdra (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Lokomotiv Mezdra away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.62 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Lokomotiv Mezdra defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.34

Lokomotiv Mezdra attack 1.36 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Levski Lom scores more
72%
level
17%
Lokomotiv Mezdra scores more
11%

Levski Lom at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Levski Lom 2–0 Lokomotiv Mezdra

Levski Lom beat Lokomotiv Mezdra 2-0 in Third League - Northwest on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.