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Levski Lom vs Hebar 1918 — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
CANC
15:00
Hebar 1918
Hebar 1918
5/4/2022Second LeagueSecond League · Round 35Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom32%
×Draw28%
Hebar 191840%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
1.08
Hebar 1918
1.25

Hebar 1918 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 60 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
Hebar 1918
1.28

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
Hebar 1918
1.40

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Hebar 1918+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Hebar 1918 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
60%
Levski Lom or Hebar 1918
72%
Draw or Hebar 1918
68%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
12%
Hebar 1918 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
66%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
29%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
10%
Hebar 1918 1+ goals
71%
Hebar 1918 2+ goals
36%
Hebar 1918 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
44%
Hebar 1918 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Hebar 1918 away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + Hebar 1918 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.08

Hebar 1918 attack 1.28 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levski Lom scores more
32%
level
28%
Hebar 1918 scores more
40%

Hebar 1918 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hebar 1918 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levski Lom face Hebar 1918 (Second League)

Second League returns with Levski Lom hosting Hebar 1918. Match starts May 4, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Levski Lom host Hebar 1918 at Gradski Stadion Lom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.