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Levski Lom vs FK Minyor Pernik — Second League 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Minyor Pernik
FK Minyor Pernik
11/27/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 19Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Levski Lom39%
×Draw29%
FK Minyor Pernik32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
1.20
FK Minyor Pernik
1.05

Levski Lom creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 85 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
0.77
FK Minyor Pernik
0.87

allows per match

Levski Lom
1.23
FK Minyor Pernik
1.62

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
FK Minyor Pernik+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

FK Minyor Pernik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
68%
Levski Lom or FK Minyor Pernik
71%
Draw or FK Minyor Pernik
61%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
17%
FK Minyor Pernik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
70%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
34%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
12%
FK Minyor Pernik 1+ goals
65%
FK Minyor Pernik 2+ goals
28%
FK Minyor Pernik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
55%
FK Minyor Pernik (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

FK Minyor Pernik away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 0.77 + FK Minyor Pernik defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.20

FK Minyor Pernik attack 0.87 + Levski Lom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levski Lom scores more
39%
level
29%
FK Minyor Pernik scores more
32%

Levski Lom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs FK Minyor Pernik

FK Minyor Pernik beat Levski Lom 1-0 in Second League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.