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Levski Lom vs Drenovets — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
5 – 0
Drenovets
Drenovets
8/30/2020Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 4Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom85%
×Draw11%
Drenovets4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.81
Drenovets
0.47

Levski Lom creates 498% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Drenovets
0.76

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Drenovets
2.56

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Drenovets+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Drenovets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
96%
Levski Lom or Drenovets
89%
Draw or Drenovets
15%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
65%
Drenovets wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
94%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
76%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
52%
Drenovets 1+ goals
37%
Drenovets 2+ goals
8%
Drenovets 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
95%
Drenovets (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Drenovets away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Drenovets defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.81

Drenovets attack 0.76 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Levski Lom scores more
85%
level
11%
Drenovets scores more
4%

Levski Lom at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Lom vs Drenovets

Levski Lom beat Drenovets 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.