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Levski Lom vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Levski Lom
Levski Lom
FT
5 – 0
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
3/21/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 22Gradski Stadion Lom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Lom76%
×Draw16%
Botev Vratsa II8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Lom
2.44
Botev Vratsa II
0.67

Levski Lom creates 264% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 61 away

creates per match

Levski Lom
3.06
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Levski Lom
0.18
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Levski Lom+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Lom ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Levski Lom or draw
92%
Levski Lom or Botev Vratsa II
84%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
24%

Winning margin

Levski Lom wins by 2+
53%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Lom 1+ goals
91%
Levski Lom 2+ goals
70%
Levski Lom 3+ goals
43%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
49%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
15%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Levski Lom (draw refunded)
90%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Lom at home — creates 3.06, concedes 0.18 · 17 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Lom attack 3.06 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.44

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Levski Lom defence 0.18 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Levski Lom scores more
76%
level
16%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
8%

Levski Lom at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Levski Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Levski Lom 5–0 Botev Vratsa II

Levski Lom beat Botev Vratsa II 5-0 in Third League - Northwest on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion Lom in Lom.