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Levski Krumovgrad vs Slavia Sofia — First League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia
4/19/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 30Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad40%
×Draw28%
Slavia Sofia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.24
Slavia Sofia
1.07

Levski Krumovgrad creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 138 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Slavia Sofia
1.00

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Slavia Sofia
1.34

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Slavia Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Slavia Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
68%
Levski Krumovgrad or Slavia Sofia
72%
Draw or Slavia Sofia
60%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
18%
Slavia Sofia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
71%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
35%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
13%
Slavia Sofia 1+ goals
66%
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals
29%
Slavia Sofia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
56%
Slavia Sofia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Slavia Sofia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Slavia Sofia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Slavia Sofia attack 1.00 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
40%
level
28%
Slavia Sofia scores more
32%

Levski Krumovgrad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Krumovgrad 2–0 Slavia Sofia

Levski Krumovgrad beat Slavia Sofia 2-0 in First League on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.