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Levski Krumovgrad vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
8/31/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad49%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Sofia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.50
Septemvri Sofia
1.01

Levski Krumovgrad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 73 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
75%
Levski Krumovgrad or Septemvri Sofia
74%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
51%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
24%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
78%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
44%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
19%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
64%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
27%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
66%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
49%
level
26%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
25%

Levski Krumovgrad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Septemvri Sofia

Levski Krumovgrad beat Septemvri Sofia 2-0 in First League on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.