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Levski Krumovgrad vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
2 – 3
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
8/7/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 1Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad80%
×Draw13%
Rodopa Smolyan8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.98
Rodopa Smolyan
0.83

Levski Krumovgrad creates 259% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 120 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
92%
Levski Krumovgrad or Rodopa Smolyan
87%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
20%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
60%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
95%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
79%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
56%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
56%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
20%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
91%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.98

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
80%
level
13%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
8%

Levski Krumovgrad at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Krumovgrad vs Rodopa Smolyan

Rodopa Smolyan beat Levski Krumovgrad 3-2 in Third League - Southeast on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.