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Levski Krumovgrad vs Nesebar — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Nesebar
Nesebar
2/26/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad72%
×Draw16%
Nesebar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
2.69
Nesebar
1.04

Levski Krumovgrad creates 159% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
4.00
Nesebar
1.55

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
0.53
Nesebar
1.38

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Nesebar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Nesebar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
88%
Levski Krumovgrad or Nesebar
84%
Draw or Nesebar
28%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
50%
Nesebar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
93%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
74%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
49%
Nesebar 1+ goals
65%
Nesebar 2+ goals
28%
Nesebar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
85%
Nesebar (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 4.00, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Nesebar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 4.00 + Nesebar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.69

Nesebar attack 1.55 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
72%
level
16%
Nesebar scores more
12%

Levski Krumovgrad at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Krumovgrad 3–0 Nesebar

Levski Krumovgrad beat Nesebar 3-0 in Third League - Southeast on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Levski Krumovgrad in Krumovgrad.