Levski Krumovgrad 2–1 Maritsa Plovdiv

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maritsa Plovdiv

4/13/2023

Second League · Round 26Stadion Levski Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad58%

×Draw25%

Maritsa Plovdiv18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchMaritsa Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.76

Levski Krumovgrad

1.61

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.76

Levski Krumovgrad creates 112% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

1.35

creates per match

0.75

0.76

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.35

Maritsa Plovdiv

0.75

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

0.76

Maritsa Plovdiv

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

82%

Levski Krumovgrad or Maritsa Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv

42%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

31%

Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

80%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

48%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

22%

Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals

53%

Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals

18%

Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

77%

Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.35 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 0.75 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

58%

level

25%

Maritsa Plovdiv scores more

18%

Levski Krumovgrad at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff