Levski Krumovgrad 0–0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

3/14/2025

First League · Round 25Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad38%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Levski Krumovgrad

1.23

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 136 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.14

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.14

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.15

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.14

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

66%

Levski Krumovgrad or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv

62%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

16%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

71%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

35%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

13%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1+ goals

68%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals

32%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

53%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack 1.15 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

38%

level

28%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores more

34%

Levski Krumovgrad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff