Levski Krumovgrad 2–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Levski Krumovgrad

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

5/22/2023

Second League · Round 31Sport Complex Krumovgrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad43%

×Draw28%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KrumovgradExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.98

Levski Krumovgrad

1.27

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.98

Levski Krumovgrad creates 30% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

1.35

creates per match

1.20

0.76

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad

1.35

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad

0.76

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw

71%

Levski Krumovgrad or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

72%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

57%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+

19%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals

72%

Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals

36%

Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals

14%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

62%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

26%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)

60%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.35 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.20 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more

43%

level

28%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

29%

Levski Krumovgrad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff