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Levski Krumovgrad vs Beroe — First League 2018

Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beroe
Beroe
12/3/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Levski Krumovgrad43%
×Draw28%
Beroe29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Krumovgrad
1.30
Beroe
1.03

Levski Krumovgrad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 138 away

creates per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Beroe
0.93

allows per match

Levski Krumovgrad
1.14
Beroe
1.46

finishing

Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par
Beroe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Krumovgrad ↓

Beroe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levski Krumovgrad or draw
71%
Levski Krumovgrad or Beroe
72%
Draw or Beroe
57%

Winning margin

Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
19%
Beroe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
73%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
37%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
14%
Beroe 1+ goals
64%
Beroe 2+ goals
28%
Beroe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
59%
Beroe (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Krumovgrad at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Beroe away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.46 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.14 + Beroe defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Beroe attack 0.93 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Levski Krumovgrad scores more
43%
level
28%
Beroe scores more
29%

Levski Krumovgrad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Levski Krumovgrad 1–0 Beroe

Levski Krumovgrad beat Beroe 1-0 in First League on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.