Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Levski Karlovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
5/29/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 34Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Karlovo79%
×Draw13%
Vereya Stara Zagora8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
2.91
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.83

Levski Karlovo creates 251% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 36 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
92%
Levski Karlovo or Vereya Stara Zagora
87%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
21%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
59%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
94%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
78%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
54%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
56%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
20%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
91%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.91

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
79%
level
13%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
8%

Levski Karlovo at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Karlovo 2–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Levski Karlovo beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.