Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Levski Karlovo vs Sekirovo Rakovski — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
8/2/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 1Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Levski Karlovo55%
×Draw23%
Sekirovo Rakovski22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.79
Sekirovo Rakovski
1.03

Levski Karlovo creates 74% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 56 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Sekirovo Rakovski
0.93

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Sekirovo Rakovski
2.07

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
78%
Levski Karlovo or Sekirovo Rakovski
77%
Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski
45%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
31%
Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
83%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
53%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
26%
Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
64%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
28%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
72%
Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
55%
level
23%
Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
22%

Levski Karlovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Levski Karlovo 2–0 Sekirovo Rakovski

Levski Karlovo beat Sekirovo Rakovski 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.