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Levski Karlovo vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Karnobat
Karnobat
9/23/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 8Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Levski Karlovo62%
×Draw21%
Karnobat17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
2.04
Karnobat
0.96

Levski Karlovo creates 113% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 118 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
83%
Levski Karlovo or Karnobat
79%
Draw or Karnobat
38%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
38%
Karnobat wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
87%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
60%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
33%
Karnobat 1+ goals
62%
Karnobat 2+ goals
25%
Karnobat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
78%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
62%
level
21%
Karnobat scores more
17%

Levski Karlovo at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Karnobat

Levski Karlovo beat Karnobat 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.