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Levski Karlovo vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
2 – 0
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
10/25/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 12Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levski Karlovo46%
×Draw27%
Izvor Gorski izvor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.38
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.00

Levski Karlovo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 17 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
73%
Levski Karlovo or Izvor Gorski izvor
73%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
54%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
22%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
75%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
40%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
16%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
63%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
26%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
63%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
46%
level
27%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
27%

Levski Karlovo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Izvor Gorski izvor

Levski Karlovo beat Izvor Gorski izvor 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.