Levski Karlovo 0–2 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Levski Karlovo

FT

0 – 2

Botev Plovdiv II

8/26/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 4Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Levski Karlovo39%

×Draw26%

Botev Plovdiv II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski KarlovoExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.30

Levski Karlovo

1.39

Botev Plovdiv II

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 19 away

1.51

creates per match

1.47

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Levski Karlovo

1.51

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Levski Karlovo

1.13

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw

65%

Levski Karlovo or Botev Plovdiv II

74%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

61%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+

18%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals

75%

Levski Karlovo 2+ goals

40%

Levski Karlovo 3+ goals

16%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

73%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

37%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)

53%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.39

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more

39%

level

26%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

35%

Levski Karlovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff