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Levski Chepintsi vs Septemvri Sofia II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Septemvri Sofia II
Septemvri Sofia II
4/20/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 30Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi33%
×Draw25%
Septemvri Sofia II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.32
Septemvri Sofia II
1.52

Septemvri Sofia II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 88 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Septemvri Sofia II
1.19

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Septemvri Sofia II
1.83

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Septemvri Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
58%
Levski Chepintsi or Septemvri Sofia II
75%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia II
67%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
14%
Septemvri Sofia II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
73%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
38%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
15%
Septemvri Sofia II 1+ goals
78%
Septemvri Sofia II 2+ goals
45%
Septemvri Sofia II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
44%
Septemvri Sofia II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Septemvri Sofia II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.83 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Septemvri Sofia II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.32

Septemvri Sofia II attack 1.19 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
33%
level
25%
Septemvri Sofia II scores more
42%

Septemvri Sofia II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Septemvri Sofia II

Septemvri Sofia II beat Levski Chepintsi 6-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.