Levski Chepintsi 1–0 Pirin Razlog: Result & Stats

Levski Chepintsi

FT

1 – 0

Pirin Razlog

5/15/2021

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 32Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi32%

×Draw26%

Pirin Razlog42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Levski ChepintsiExpected goals in this matchPirin Razlog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.42

Levski Chepintsi

1.19

Pirin Razlog

1.42

Pirin Razlog creates 19% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 131 away

0.81

creates per match

0.98

1.86

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi

0.81

Pirin Razlog

0.98

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi

1.86

Pirin Razlog

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Pirin Razlog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw

58%

Levski Chepintsi or Pirin Razlog

74%

Draw or Pirin Razlog

68%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+

13%

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals

70%

Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals

33%

Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals

12%

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

76%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

41%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)

43%

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more

32%

level

26%

Pirin Razlog scores more

42%

Pirin Razlog at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff