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Levski Chepintsi vs Perun Kresna — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
3 – 3
Perun Kresna
Perun Kresna
10/24/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 12Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Levski Chepintsi49%
×Draw24%
Perun Kresna27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.70
Perun Kresna
1.22

Levski Chepintsi creates 39% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 26 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Perun Kresna
0.58

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Perun Kresna
2.58

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Perun Kresna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Perun Kresna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
73%
Levski Chepintsi or Perun Kresna
76%
Draw or Perun Kresna
51%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
26%
Perun Kresna wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
82%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
51%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
24%
Perun Kresna 1+ goals
70%
Perun Kresna 2+ goals
34%
Perun Kresna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
64%
Perun Kresna (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Perun Kresna away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.58 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Perun Kresna defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

Perun Kresna attack 0.58 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
49%
level
24%
Perun Kresna scores more
27%

Levski Chepintsi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Levski Chepintsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Chepintsi 3–3 Perun Kresna

Levski Chepintsi and Perun Kresna drew 3-3 in Third League - Southwest on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.