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Levski Chepintsi vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
6/4/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 38Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi32%
×Draw26%
Kostinbrod43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.23
Kostinbrod
1.48

Kostinbrod creates 20% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 70 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
57%
Levski Chepintsi or Kostinbrod
74%
Draw or Kostinbrod
68%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
13%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
71%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
35%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
13%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
77%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
43%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
42%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
32%
level
26%
Kostinbrod scores more
43%

Kostinbrod at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Kostinbrod

Kostinbrod beat Levski Chepintsi 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.