Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Levski Chepintsi vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
0 – 1
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
5/14/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 34Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi33%
×Draw26%
Botev Ihtiman41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.24
Botev Ihtiman
1.42

Botev Ihtiman creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 132 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
59%
Levski Chepintsi or Botev Ihtiman
74%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
67%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
14%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
71%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
35%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
13%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
76%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
41%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
44%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.24

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
33%
level
26%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
41%

Botev Ihtiman at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Botev Ihtiman

Botev Ihtiman beat Levski Chepintsi 1-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.