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Levski Chepintsi vs Belasitsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
1 – 3
Belasitsa
Belasitsa
8/29/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 4Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi24%
×Draw26%
Belasitsa50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
0.94
Belasitsa
1.49

Belasitsa creates 59% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 62 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Belasitsa
1.11

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Belasitsa
1.06

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Belasitsa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Belasitsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
50%
Levski Chepintsi or Belasitsa
74%
Draw or Belasitsa
76%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
8%
Belasitsa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
61%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
24%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
7%
Belasitsa 1+ goals
77%
Belasitsa 2+ goals
44%
Belasitsa 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
32%
Belasitsa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Belasitsa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Belasitsa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Belasitsa attack 1.11 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
24%
level
26%
Belasitsa scores more
50%

Belasitsa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Belasitsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Levski Chepintsi 1 – 3 Belasitsa

Belasitsa beat Levski Chepintsi 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.