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Levski Chepintsi vs Balkan Botevgrad — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
2 – 1
Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
9/26/2020Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 8Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi31%
×Draw25%
Balkan Botevgrad44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.27
Balkan Botevgrad
1.56

Balkan Botevgrad creates 23% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 131 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Balkan Botevgrad
1.27

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Balkan Botevgrad
1.73

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
56%
Levski Chepintsi or Balkan Botevgrad
75%
Draw or Balkan Botevgrad
69%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
13%
Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
72%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
36%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
14%
Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
79%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
46%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
41%
Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
31%
level
25%
Balkan Botevgrad scores more
44%

Balkan Botevgrad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Chepintsi vs Balkan Botevgrad

Levski Chepintsi beat Balkan Botevgrad 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.