Levico 0–2 Delta Porto Tolle: Result & Stats

Levico

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Delta Porto Tolle

O. M. David 75'

F. Busetto 7'

2/13/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Levico39%

×Draw30%

Delta Porto Tolle32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevicoExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.99

Levico

1.13

Delta Porto Tolle

0.99

Levico creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 30 away

0.88

creates per match

1.13

0.85

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Levico

0.88

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

Levico

0.85

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levico+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Levico or draw

68%

Levico or Delta Porto Tolle

70%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

61%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+

16%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals

68%

Levico 2+ goals

31%

Levico 3+ goals

11%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

63%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

26%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)

55%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Levico scores more

39%

level

30%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

32%

Levico at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Levico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

F. Busetto

75'

O. M. David

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff