Levico 1–0 Cjarlins Muzane: Result & Stats

Levico

FT

1 – 0

Cjarlins Muzane

M. Scaglione 52'

10/24/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Levico36%

×Draw30%

Cjarlins Muzane34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevicoExpected goals in this matchCjarlins Muzane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.00

Levico

1.05

Cjarlins Muzane

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 101 away

0.88

creates per match

1.15

0.85

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Levico

0.88

Cjarlins Muzane

1.15

allows per match

Levico

0.85

Cjarlins Muzane

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levico+0.00on par

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Levico or draw

66%

Levico or Cjarlins Muzane

70%

Draw or Cjarlins Muzane

64%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+

14%

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals

65%

Levico 2+ goals

28%

Levico 3+ goals

9%

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals

63%

Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals

26%

Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)

52%

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Levico scores more

36%

level

30%

Cjarlins Muzane scores more

34%

Levico at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Levico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

M. Scaglione

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff