Levico 0–1 Caldiero Terme: Result & Stats

Levico

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Caldiero Terme

4/16/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Levico34%

×Draw30%

Caldiero Terme37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LevicoExpected goals in this matchCaldiero Terme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.09

Levico

1.03

Caldiero Terme

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 47 away

0.88

creates per match

1.34

0.85

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Levico

0.88

Caldiero Terme

1.34

allows per match

Levico

0.85

Caldiero Terme

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Levico+0.00on par

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Caldiero Terme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Levico or draw

63%

Levico or Caldiero Terme

70%

Draw or Caldiero Terme

66%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+

13%

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals

64%

Levico 2+ goals

28%

Levico 3+ goals

9%

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

66%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

30%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)

48%

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Levico scores more

34%

level

30%

Caldiero Terme scores more

37%

Caldiero Terme at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff