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Levico vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Levico
Levico
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
R. Pettina 5'
F. Cariolato 49'
4/14/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Levico25%
×Draw26%
Arzignano Valchiampo48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levico
0.97
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.46

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Levico
0.88
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

Levico
0.85
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

Levico+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levico ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Levico or draw
52%
Levico or Arzignano Valchiampo
74%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
75%

Winning margin

Levico wins by 2+
9%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Levico 1+ goals
62%
Levico 2+ goals
25%
Levico 3+ goals
7%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
77%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
43%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Levico (draw refunded)
34%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levico at home — creates 0.88, concedes 0.85 · 34 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levico attack 0.88 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + Levico defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Levico scores more
25%
level
26%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
48%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
R. Pettina
49'
F. Cariolato

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levico vs Arzignano Valchiampo

Levico and Arzignano Valchiampo drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 14, 2022.

Goals: R. Pettina (5'), F. Cariolato (49').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Levico Terme.