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Levante W vs Tacón W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Levante W
Levante W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tacón W
Tacón W
2/23/2020Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 21Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Levante W59%
×Draw20%
Tacón W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levante W
2.34
Tacón W
1.36

Levante W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 10 away

creates per match

Levante W
1.88
Tacón W
1.50

allows per match

Levante W
1.22
Tacón W
2.80

finishing

Levante W+0.00on par
Tacón W+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levante W ↓

Tacón W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Levante W or draw
78%
Levante W or Tacón W
80%
Draw or Tacón W
41%

Winning margin

Levante W wins by 2+
37%
Tacón W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Levante W 1+ goals
90%
Levante W 2+ goals
67%
Levante W 3+ goals
41%
Tacón W 1+ goals
74%
Tacón W 2+ goals
39%
Tacón W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Levante W (draw refunded)
73%
Tacón W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levante W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Tacón W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levante W attack 1.88 + Tacón W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.34

Tacón W attack 1.50 + Levante W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Levante W scores more
59%
level
20%
Tacón W scores more
22%

Levante W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Levante W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levante W vs Tacón W

Levante W beat Tacón W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Buñol - Campo 1 in Buñol.